Been looking at the polls...

Guard Dad

Guard Dad

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Biden is still the clear leader on the Democrat side. Sanders is second, Pocahontas third but she seems to be falling. Butt dude seems to be rising, but is still well behind (no pun intended) hairy legs and Bernie.

IMO, the polls for Democrat nominee are reflecting a lessor of evils attitude due to so many of the current crop being so radical with their positions. The liberal wing of the Democratic Party has clearly made a choice to come out of the far left closet and publicly embrace Socialism. While there is clearly a lot more public support for it than there was in previous years, I think the Dems have over-estimated public support for a Socialist state, and that this will ultimately backfire on them by rallying those of us who are rightfully terrified by such philosophies. Biden, even with all his crazy, comes across as a "safer" choice than the crazies do. Even butt guy looks fairly moderate and common sense compared to Bernie and Warren. But I still say none of that pack will be the ultimate nominee. The party bosses will come to their senses at some point and plug in a candidate who is more palatable to the general public.

The general election generic polls are all over the place and seem to swing with the wind gusts. I suspect many of the Democrats polled are basing their answers on a race with Trump running against a hypothetical Democratic candidate, and not so much on any of the current crop of Dem candidates. I say this because there doesn't seem to be any strong support for any of the current crop of Dem candidates. None of them are turning the people on. Because of this, I believe the generic Trump vs ______ polls we have at present are completely meaningless. Only when the Dems have a nominee or a projected nominee will those polls start to mean anything. Even then, I suspect they will not reflect the true Trump support. There is good indication that many of the Trump supporters do not respond to polls, either to deny the polling system or out of fear of the public persecution that Trump supporters are subjected to.

I believe we're looking at yet another election which, like the last presidential election will have unstable dynamics and will likely prove a lot of predictions wrong.

It's gonna be fun!
 
I have not paid any attention to the polls, but I have seen many Bloomburg commercials since he announced jumping into the race. He sounds very moderate and paints Trump, as expected, as a racists hot head destroying our environment.

And remember... he is plane ol' Mike of humble beginnings who created jobs, united New York after 911, is tough on guns and will get rid of homelessness. What a peach!;)

https://www.ispot.tv/ad/Znmg/mike-bloomberg-2020-2020-presidential-campaign
 
The Democratic Party elites are now saying the only way to have a fair election in 2020 is to remove Trump from office. That right there shows they believe they cannot beat Trump at the voting booth. Here's an interesting thing about that statement: voters now know their was a conflict of interest when Hunter Biden was on the board of Burisma while his father who was VP. Dems believe Trump's attempt to have that conflict of interest investigated by Ukraine hurts Biden's chances of getting elected. If that is so, what difference does it make now if Trump runs or not; especially if they know Biden will not be their candidate?

The answer is they know no matter who their nominee is, they cannot beat Trump because the same people who voted for him in 2016, will vote for him again. They also know that this whole impeachment farce is not playing well with independents and voters in swing states. They believed that when they started this impeachment farce, voters would turn on Trump; but they now know that is not the case. The Dems now see they stand an excellent chance of losing seats in the Senate and in the House. They could very well lose the majority in the House. The Dems who took House seats from Republicans are running scared because it looks bad for them to keep those seats in 2020. This impeachment farce has divided their party.
 
Far West said:
I have not paid any attention to the polls, but I have seen many Bloomburg commercials since he announced jumping into the race. He sounds very moderate and paints Trump, as expected, as a racists hot head destroying our environment.

And remember... he is plane ol' Mike of humble beginnings who created jobs, united New York after 911, is tough on guns and will get rid of homelessness. What a peach!;)

https://www.ispot.tv/ad/Znmg/mike-bloomberg-2020-2020-presidential-campaign
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I might be wrong, but I don't expect Bloomy to be well accepted. I just don't think he will appeal to Democratic voters.

I suspect the Dems are still frantically searching for (or perhaps already have) their savior. They know they likely won't win with the current crop of candidates, which is why they are trying to destroy Trump in the court of public opinion.
 
With Biden likely soon to be falling and assuming Hildabeast doesn’t jump in I still predict Bloomberg to be the Dem nominee to set up a $$$ vs $$$ showdown in the General Election.
 
Guard Dad said:
Even then, I suspect they will not reflect the true Trump support. There is good indication that many of the Trump supporters do not respond to polls, either to deny the polling system or out of fear of the public persecution that Trump supporters are subjected to.
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This. I don't trust the poll takers to bend the information to their desires anyway, so we hang up if one calls.
 
Generic polls are completely worthless. I still say it's Warren's to lose.

One poll of Dems had Hildabeast winning the Dem nomination. I really hope she jumps in. The Dems won't get a single independent vote.

Another possibility floated by some politicos is the battle of the VPs if Trump is impeached. This is the only one that has the Republicans as strong winners.
 
There is one huge inconsistency in the polls that is very interesting. Trump's job approval really hasn't changed a lot since his first few months in office. By and large, the two "sides" are galvanized in their opinion of him and are not likely going to change. His disapproval generally stays about 10 points higher than his approval, which would typically spell trouble for the president.

The generic ballots seem to echo this; in a generic Trump against Democrat poll, the Democrats will by a several point advantage.

But in the Trump against specific candidates polls. things start to change. They swing back and forth, but about half of them show Trump winning. Biden usually does the best against Trump, and I really don't believe Biden will be that strong when it gets down to the Dems selecting a nominee. Don't count out Butt Dude though, he is quietly rising in the polls. And the reason is that he comes across as reasonable compared to the pack of crazies.

The real message from all this is that while a sizable chuck of the electorate is on the hate Trump train, they are not very happy or excited about the Democratic candidates they have to choose from. This could mean that many will stay home on election day.

Turnout is what usually wins elections these days, and unless the Dems get a candidate that will excite the voters, I still give Trump a significant turnout advantage. And THAT is what won it for him last time.
 
Guard Dad said:
There is one huge inconsistency in the polls that is very interesting. Trump's job approval really hasn't changed a lot since his first few months in office. By and large, the two "sides" are galvanized in their opinion of him and are not likely going to change. His disapproval generally stays about 10 points higher than his approval, which would typically spell trouble for the president.

The generic ballots seem to echo this; in a generic Trump against Democrat poll, the Democrats will by a several point advantage.

But in the Trump against specific candidates polls. things start to change. They swing back and forth, but about half of them show Trump winning. Biden usually does the best against Trump, and I really don't believe Biden will be that strong when it gets down to the Dems selecting a nominee. Don't count out Butt Dude though, he is quietly rising in the polls. And the reason is that he comes across as reasonable compared to the pack of crazies.

The real message from all this is that while a sizable chuck of the electorate is on the hate Trump train, they are not very happy or excited about the Democratic candidates they have to choose from. This could mean that many will stay home on election day.

Turnout is what usually wins elections these days, and unless the Dems get a candidate that will excite the voters, I still give Trump a significant turnout advantage. And THAT is what won it for him last time.
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Interestingly enough, Trump's approval rating has stayed the same during all the impeachment hearings, but his disapproval rating has fallen. This shows that more are somewhat ambivalent to him and that has taken from the haters side. Like you say, that means that fewer haters and ex haters will bother to vote. This entire impeachment act will play well to the Democrat's base, but doesn't seem to be changing minds to their favor.
 
Guard Dad said:
The real message from all this is that while a sizable chuck of the electorate is on the hate Trump train, they are not very happy or excited about the Democratic candidates they have to choose from. This could mean that many will stay home on election day.

Turnout is what usually wins elections these days, and unless the Dems get a candidate that will excite the voters, I still give Trump a significant turnout advantage. And THAT is what won it for him last time.
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This is what I find interesting. They had 20 something people to choose from, and still can't find anyone that excites them! It tells me that they are still waiting for their Big Kahuna to tell them who to like.
 
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