So where are all of these projections coming from?

[lotstodo]

Here:

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

Explore hospital bed use, need for intensive care beds, and ventilator use due to COVID-19 based on projected deaths for all 50 US states and District of Columbia

covid19.healthdata.org

This is the "accepted" model being used by the US, although there are others. You can see the entire US or pick a state from the drop down menu. You will notice that the range of possibilities is huge. There are a lot of variables, and human nature is nearly impossible to predict. The dotted lines are the best guess if we all behave.

If you have been following the daily updates, you will see that things have been looking better the last week as it finally sinks in that this is no joke. Still, the US and nearly every state is predicted to overrun the healthcare system to some extent. this is where you will see deaths vs. infections escalate.

As for Georgia, they predict about 3200 deaths, while Dr. Del Rio from Emory is now predicting some 2700. Either way, it's going to suck.

 

[J-man]

Good to know, let’s see how accurate they were down the road. Hopefully they’ll be wayyyyyy over projected.

 

[Grey Colson]

From some of the same goobs that tout the climate change models.

 

[lotstodo]

From some of the same goobs that tout the climate change models.

Completely different people with a completely different skill set, but OK.

 

[The Sound Guy]

Models are only as good as the data that goes into them. With the lack of testing being done, no on has a clue what the real situation is.

 

[lotstodo]

Models are only as good as the data that goes into them. With the lack of testing being done, no on has a clue what the real situation is.

They are actually adjusted for that, based upon hospitalizations here and what we know from other countries where testing is more widespread, but it is another variable. Every variable introduces error. If you look at these graphs, they have the range of possibilities graphed out for you in the form of the shaded areas. The dotted lines are the best guess scenario. Nobody is claiming complete accuracy, but then again even the mildest possibility is pretty darn harsh. So far, the models are holding up pretty well with some adjustment downward in the past week or so as people have finally started paying attention. We really won't know how close they are until the predicted move in a week to ten days. If we don't see that move, then we might see numbers less than predicted or the peak might just come later.

 

[The Sound Guy]

There are lies, damn Lies and statistics.