White House estimates...

[J-man]

...100,000 - 240,000 U.S. deaths from COVID-19 and these estimates are based on current and continued preventative measures. Without such measures the estimates rise to between 1.5M - 2.2M U.S. deaths. I’m not a math genius by any means but current U.S. cases are about 185,270 of which 175,270 are active, 6,347 are recovered, and 3780 U.S. deaths.

The numbers just don’t add up. I just don’t see it getting anywhere near these numbers and pray that this time I’m correct.

White House projects 100K to 240K coronavirus deaths as Trump tells US to prepare for ‘very painful two weeks’

The White House coronavirus task force unveiled on Tuesday the extended guidelines to try to slow the spread of the coronavirus pandemic in the United States as a somber President Trump warned Americans that the country is in for “a very painful two weeks.”

www.foxnews.com

 

[cptlo]

I was thinking the same thing. I hope they are just using numbers like that to scare people to stay home and the numbers will ultimately be much lower.

 

[J-man]

I’m not a doctor or a scientist but how can anyone justify these estimates? And if they are inflated to convince people to stay home then shame on them. Don’t create more mass panic than has already been made.

Seriously, am I wrong? What am I missing, or better yet, what are we not being told?

 

[The Sound Guy]

I think the worse case numbers are based off of the medical system getting overwhelmed and the death rate jumping to an Italy number of 7%+ vs. the 1% or less that we are having now. (Assuming that at least half the cases are so mild that people are not going to be tested).

Also we are VERY early in the pandemic. Population of the US is 329,000,000. Using the number of cases above and assuming that only 25% of the cases become bad enough to get tested, then only 0.225% of the population has had the illness. Yet they are scattered all over the US, in every state, and quarantine is about impossible since it has up to a two week incubation period.

Now assume that at least 50% of the people in the country must have the virus and create antibodies to stop the pandemic or reduce it to a level where we can control contact with sick people and quarantine them. (I've seen 60% as the number, but let's make it easy). That's 164,500,000 cases for the US population. Figure that at least 75% of the cases actually out there are not being tested because their symptoms are not bad enough. So tested cases are 41,125,000.

Using the numbers in the OP, the current death rate is approx 2%, not including those who have already been tested, but are going to die.

So 2% of those 41,125,000 serious cases is 840,000 deaths. If they come too fast and hospitals become overwhelmed and we jump to 5% death rate of serious cases? 2,000,000 dead. So there is the 2 million number. If it makes it to 7% like Italy? 2.8 million dead.

Now the questionable part of that calculation is how many minor cases there are vs serious cases, and until we get some group testing done in various cities where it's active, we don't have any idea what that number is. Could be better, could be worse. If better, then Yeah! this thing gets over with fewer deaths. If worse, then we are in for a world of hurt.

But until we know, we have to treat this seriously to be sure the heath system doesn't overload.

JMHO.

 

[Guard Dad]

Common Core?

 

[J-man]

I think the worse case numbers are based off of the medical system getting overwhelmed and the death rate jumping to an Italy number of 7%+ vs. the 1% or less that we are having now. (Assuming that at least half the cases are so mild that people are not going to be tested).

Also we are VERY early in the pandemic. Population of the US is 329,000,000. Using the number of cases above and assuming that only 25% of the cases become bad enough to get tested, then only 0.225% of the population has had the illness. Yet they are scattered all over the US, in every state, and quarantine is about impossible since it has up to a two week incubation period.

Now assume that at least 50% of the people in the country must have the virus and create antibodies to stop the pandemic or reduce it to a level where we can control contact with sick people and quarantine them. (I've seen 60% as the number, but let's make it easy). That's 164,500,000 cases for the US population. Figure that at least 75% of the cases actually out there are not being tested because their symptoms are not bad enough. So tested cases are 41,125,000.

Using the numbers in the OP, the current death rate is approx 2%, not including those who have already been tested, but are going to die.

So 2% of those 41,125,000 serious cases is 840,000 deaths. If they come too fast and hospitals become overwhelmed and we jump to 5% death rate of serious cases? 2,000,000 dead. So there is the 2 million number. If it makes it to 7% like Italy? 2.8 million dead.

Now the questionable part of that calculation is how many minor cases there are vs serious cases, and until we get some group testing done in various cities where it's active, we don't have any idea what that number is. Could be better, could be worse. If better, then Yeah! this thing gets over with fewer deaths. If worse, then we are in for a world of hurt.

But until we know, we have to treat this seriously to be sure the heath system doesn't overload.

JMHO.

I really don’t mean to seem as though I’m minimizing the seriousness of the virus, that’s really not my intent. We are sheltered down here for the most part and will continue to do what is expected. I just can’t balance the world’s reaction to it, much less ours here in the good old USA. You know darn well other societies are not locking down everyone so where is the path to the last active case? It’s intriguing to think about while we sit around counting our cats.

 

[Boss 302]

Creating these models are very similar to how sales projections are conducted. The models, like sales projections have two confidence levels; an upper and a lower using existing data. An example would be using the number of tests conducted on each individual day, how many positive tests there were on each of those days, and how many deaths. You also enter the time frame you want to project. Once you chart it, the chart will show you three lines that will curve. The upper confidence level is the maximum expected; the middle is what is likely to happen, and the lower is the least likely. In sales you want to achieve the upper confidence level and avoid the lower. For the virus you want to hit the lower.

The purpose of the models is to force you to think outside the box to examine and identify what risks you need to mitigate to achieve the result you desire. In the case of the coronavirus model, the task force felt it best to extend the 15-day guidelines another 30, as other initiatives, i.e. closely examining clinical studies on the meds being tested. Another purpose of modeling is plan for the worse case scenarios resulting in numbers reaching the upper confidence level. That's why the administration is utilizing FEMA and the Army Corps of Engineers to build temporary hospitals, utilizing the two hospital ships, having industry increase production of PPE and ventilators.

Will we reach the upper confidence level? Most likely not, but as the president said the next two weeks are going to be rough because the numbers in the lower confidence level are much higher than the current actual numbers. Non-essential businesses who continue to work employees are only contributing to the problem. People who leave their homes for reasons other than obtaining groceries, prescriptions, gas are contributing to the problem. If you're not working; stay the heck home.

 

[The Sound Guy]

I really don’t mean to seem as though I’m minimizing the seriousness of the virus, that’s really not my intent. We are sheltered down here for the most part and will continue to do what is expected. I just can’t balance the world’s reaction to it, much less ours here in the good old USA. You know darn well other societies are not locking down everyone so where is the path to the last active case? It’s intriguing to think about while we sit around counting our cats.

I understood that. My personal opinion is that had we attempted to do what China did and isolate every community within days of discovering that the virus got here, we could have stomped it out, but at the cost of violating the constitution seven ways to Sunday. In any case, I'm hoping that by Easter we see this level off and we can clear people to move again by the end of April. it would be much better if they spent some of that money to test groups so we could know if we've had the blasted thing already and can get on with our lives. We're running pretty much blind right now.

 

[Boss 302]

There are way too many people right now ignoring the guidelines. It would help tremendously if people would just stay home instead of running around to anything that is open for the purpose of having something to do.

 

[honeybunny]

If the hospitals are overwhelmed with Corona cases, then the deaths from all other causes will soar.

Maybe this is part of the figuring ? ? ?

 

[Boss 302]

I think the worse case numbers are based off of the medical system getting overwhelmed and the death rate jumping to an Italy number of 7%+ vs. the 1% or less that we are having now. (Assuming that at least half the cases are so mild that people are not going to be tested).

Also we are VERY early in the pandemic. Population of the US is 329,000,000. Using the number of cases above and assuming that only 25% of the cases become bad enough to get tested, then only 0.225% of the population has had the illness. Yet they are scattered all over the US, in every state, and quarantine is about impossible since it has up to a two week incubation period.

Now assume that at least 50% of the people in the country must have the virus and create antibodies to stop the pandemic or reduce it to a level where we can control contact with sick people and quarantine them. (I've seen 60% as the number, but let's make it easy). That's 164,500,000 cases for the US population. Figure that at least 75% of the cases actually out there are not being tested because their symptoms are not bad enough. So tested cases are 41,125,000.

Using the numbers in the OP, the current death rate is approx 2%, not including those who have already been tested, but are going to die.

So 2% of those 41,125,000 serious cases is 840,000 deaths. If they come too fast and hospitals become overwhelmed and we jump to 5% death rate of serious cases? 2,000,000 dead. So there is the 2 million number. If it makes it to 7% like Italy? 2.8 million dead.

Now the questionable part of that calculation is how many minor cases there are vs serious cases, and until we get some group testing done in various cities where it's active, we don't have any idea what that number is. Could be better, could be worse. If better, then Yeah! this thing gets over with fewer deaths. If worse, then we are in for a world of hurt.

But until we know, we have to treat this seriously to be sure the heath system doesn't overload.

JMHO.

This is why random testing needs to be conducted.

 

[ABTHREE]

How can it be? China has 4 times more people than the USA but we have surpassed them in deaths from the virus. We are told that we will have 100 - 200 thousand deaths here.
China‘s deaths and new cases are way down (36 new cases/7 deaths) 03/31/20.
Having a hard time understanding this. What are we doing wrong or what did China do right? This makes no sense to me what am I missing?

 

[Guard Dad]

I would not assume that any information China is putting out is true.

 

[The Sound Guy]

How can it be? China has 4 times more people than the USA but we have surpassed them in deaths from the virus. We are told that we will have 100 - 200 thousand deaths here.
China‘s deaths and new cases are way down (36 new cases/7 deaths) 03/31/20.
Having a hard time understanding this. What are we doing wrong or what did China do right? This makes no sense to me what am I missing?

China put the entire Wuhan area under quarantine pretty quickly to prevent the spread and I don't think that China has a lot of internal travel anyway. That kept the number of cases low outside that area and they could isolate those cases and their contacts quickly. No one would complain since they would shoot or jail anyone that did anyway.

That wouldn't work here. You can see the complaints and people ignoring distancing orders now when there are already a 1000+ deaths as evidence. If the President had done that when the first few cases showed up, there would have been riots and Court cases. With the long incubation period of this virus, there is too much chance to spread it before you feel sick. If we had isolated the states early on and prevented interstate travel except for trucks/trains with supplies, we'd had the tests to check the drivers and kept many states clean. Read Executive Orders by Tom Clancey. It deals with an ebola attack on the US and what was done there. Since ebola is 80% fatal, the book has the people accept the band more than Corona which is 3% or less fatal (with care).

The problem is that drastic actions are needed to control the spread and that won't happen in a free society without proof there is a problem and by then it's too late.

 

[J-man]

Here is what's troubling me:

Estimated population:
US 327M
China 1.38B
Italy 60M
Germany 82M
Japan 126M

Based on the estimates of up to 210k US deaths if we continue the same measures currently in place, using the same numbers would equate to a total of 1.26M deaths in just those countries alone. Currently there are only about 42k deaths worldwide, not just in the countries listed above.

Something just isn't adding up. Sorry.

 

[ABTHREE]

China put the entire Wuhan area under quarantine pretty quickly to prevent the spread and I don't think that China has a lot of internal travel anyway. That kept the number of cases low outside that area and they could isolate those cases and their contacts quickly. No one would complain since they would shoot or jail anyone that did anyway.

That wouldn't work here. You can see the complaints and people ignoring distancing orders now when there are already a 1000+ deaths as evidence. If the President had done that when the first few cases showed up, there would have been riots and Court cases. With the long incubation period of this virus, there is too much chance to spread it before you feel sick. If we had isolated the states early on and prevented interstate travel except for trucks/trains with supplies, we'd had the tests to check the drivers and kept many states clean. Read Executive Orders by Tom Clancey. It deals with an ebola attack on the US and what was done there. Since ebola is 80% fatal, the book has the people accept the band more than Corona which is 3% or less fatal (with care).

The problem is that drastic actions are needed to control the spread and that won't happen in a free society without proof there is a problem and by then it's too late.

Yeah, i guess freedom has a price. thanks for the insight.

 

[honeybunny]

This is why random testing needs to be conducted.

Waste of scarce resources at the moment...

Not to mention, the testing itself is pretty awful.

 

[lotstodo]

This is unfortunately how exponential growth works. It seems mild at first because 2x2x2... takes a long time to build up to a big number. But when it gets to a certain point, the growth becomes obvious.

From what I've seen, we are, depending on the region of the country, from 15 to 24 days from the peak. We will soon be to the point when a doubling of the infections every 3 days will lead to tremendous numbers.

Maybe 100,000 is high, maybe it's low, but of all the models that are being constantly adjusted to reflect exactly what has already happened, none of them, not a single solitary one, predict that this isn't going to be a real crisis. Right now we are on target to overwhelm the system in about 12 days and stay there for maybe 2 to 3 weeks if not longer.

This is far from over and so far the math is pretty much on target. Please don't disregard the numbers just because it isn't such a big deal right now. Mathematically it isn't supposed to be a big deal right now, but it soon will be. What we can hope for is that the death rate will be less than predicted, because it is the thing we know the least about.

 

[J-man]

Guess I’ll just sit back and wait until it passes. Then there will be time to determine just how and why the predictions were wrong. Must be asking the same people who predicted Trump would never become President and that HRC was a shoe-in.

I have no issue with following protocol, I’ll be a good citizen for my own health as well as that of others. That doesn’t mean I agree with it.

 

[The Sound Guy]

Here is what's troubling me:

Estimated population:
US 327M
China 1.38B
Italy 60M
Germany 82M
Japan 126M

Based on the estimates of up to 210k US deaths if we continue the same measures currently in place, using the same numbers would equate to a total of 1.26M deaths in just those countries alone. Currently there are only about 42k deaths worldwide, not just in the countries listed above.

Something just isn't adding up. Sorry.

Well, Italy stomped down pretty hard on inter-person contact once they realized the extent of the problem. They quarantined the northern part of the country trying to limit the spread. Many other countries have people with either the desire to follow government instructions or more common sense. The key is not allowing the bug to get into the population uncontrolled. The US has a huge population that wants to do what they want and don't like taking instructions.

In fact, if I was going to design something to knock the US off it's perch as a world power, I can't think of a safer way of doing it. If it knocks off a few other countries too, little loss.

Start the bug in my country, in an area that has lots of overseas travel to the target country. (This makes sure we do not get accused of an "attack". if we lose some peasants, no big deal, we are overpopulated anyway. )
Make sure it's an election year in the target, so that political considerations become an important part of the decision tree and delay needed actions.
Once it gets going locally, quickly isolate the area in my country so that *we* don't get decimated and can recover quickly. The government owns all the manufacturing anyway, so no concerns about businesses failing. The losses will be dealt with.
However, since the bug has a long gestation period, the target country will have cases pop up all over, much too fast for standard containment and tracking of contacts to work since it will have been over a week that the first ones have been contagious. Due to the above political considerations, as well as the principles of freedom in the target, containment will fail and the entire country will be put into lockdown to try to save people.
The target country's economy is smashed to bedrock by the time the bug gets to the 60% antibody state which takes six months if they can slow the spread, or a couple of months if it peaks, but with major deaths. Either way, support of the government will fall. Businesses will fail and have to be restarted. Looking at years of recovery.

China's industry is cranking up again already. Ours will be months/years in process. China will be the worlds most powerful fiscal power when this is all over.