The Official 2024 Dallas Hwy Election Prediction Thread

Guard Dad said:
A couple of the pollsters I watched mentioned it several times; they really don't know why this happens, but they acknowledged that it's real.
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I dunno why they can't understand it, I think it's simple.

A good sized group of Trump voters are conservatives who:

Don't trust the Govt
Don't trust the Media
Don't trust pollsters in general.
Don't believe it's anyone else's business who I'm gonna vote for
and
Just want to be left alone dang it!

<Note: I identify as the above>

They ignore the poll calls whereas your typical Liberal can't wait to tell them what they think and who they are voting for.

If they manage to get ahold of someone who likes to answer polls and claims to be GOP, it's likely a RINO or an never-Trumper, who claims to be voting for the other person or 3rd Party.

Thus there is a good sized group that will NEVER show up in a poll, may often not even vote, but feel Trump *is* anti-establishment and someone they feel can support to make it worth voting, so he has a large set of "Stealth" voters that show up and throw the polls off.
 
Polls are not an exact science. They're nothing more than an estimate on what percentage of votes each candidate can be expected to receive based upon sampling a small percentage of the population. The one important part of a poll that is often overlooked, is the margin of error. The margin of error sets a range plus/minus the number of votes a candidate is expected to receive. In the national popular vote Trump received 50.9% of the vote and Harris 47.6%. Below are final poll taken before election day. Pay close attention to margin of error.
pollsterdatesamplemoeHarris (D)Trump (R)spread
RCP Average10/10 - 11/4——48.748.6Harris+0.1
Atlas Intel11/3 - 11/42703 LV2.04950Trump+1
TIPP11/2 - 11/41863 LV2.34848Tie
Ipsos11/1 - 11/3973 LV3.45048Harris+2
New York Post10/31 - 11/3886 LV3.04949Tie
NPR/PBS/Marist10/31 - 11/21297 LV3.55147Harris+4
NBC News10/30 - 11/21000 RV3.04949Tie
Emerson10/30 - 11/21000 LV3.04949Tie
Forbes/HarrisX10/30 - 11/23759 LV1.65149Harris+2

The Atlas poll shows Trump was estimated to receive 50% of the vote. The margin of error is 2.0, which means the range of votes Trump was estimated to receive was 48-52% Harris' estimated range was 47-51%. The percentage of votes they each received fell within that range (the margin of error) making the poll accurate.

Now look at the NPR/PBS/Marist poll. The margin of error is 3.5 giving Trump a range of 46.5-50.5% and Harris 47.5-54.5. The actual results fell within those ranges. The election results also fell within the margins of error for the other polls in the table.

I looked at the polls for a few of the swing states and results fell within the margins of error on those as well. In other words, the polls were accurate.
 
Margin of Error


The elusive "MOE"



more like....


three-stooges-moe-larry-curly.gif
 
ABTHREE said:
I’m suspicious, there’s been no civil disobedience, no real pushback on the election results from the left.Things are too quiet. Almost like everyone be cool, plan B is coming.
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I mentioned the same to the Queen. Or maybe we’re wrong about the left, maybe they are a group of law abiding folks who love our country.



Nah, I didn’t think so either.
 
The Sound Guy said:
I dunno why they can't understand it, I think it's simple.

A good sized group of Trump voters are conservatives who:

Don't trust the Govt
Don't trust the Media
Don't trust pollsters in general.
Don't believe it's anyone else's business who I'm gonna vote for
and
Just want to be left alone dang it!

<Note: I identify as the above>

They ignore the poll calls whereas your typical Liberal can't wait to tell them what they think and who they are voting for.

If they manage to get ahold of someone who likes to answer polls and claims to be GOP, it's likely a RINO or an never-Trumper, who claims to be voting for the other person or 3rd Party.

Thus there is a good sized group that will NEVER show up in a poll, may often not even vote, but feel Trump *is* anti-establishment and someone they feel can support to make it worth voting, so he has a large set of "Stealth" voters that show up and throw the polls off.
Click to expand...
They left out the most important reason... conservatives are working and don't have the time to answer the phone and chit chat!!!!
 
The news is filled with fairly prominent Democrats claiming it was racism and sexism that caused Kamala to lose.

They truly don't get it.
 

Our Election’s Utter Losers and Winners by Victor Davis Hanson

The polls—with the exception once again of AltasIntel, Trafalgar, and Rasmussen—were off, and way off in the Senate races. The pollsters’ reputation is again in full reverse and now back to their nadir of 2020 and 2016. Many shamelessly warped their data in the last two weeks to gin up Kamala Harris momentum, fundraising, and voter turnout. And to no avail.
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www.dailysignal.com

Our Election’s Utter Losers and Winners

Analyzing the consequences of Democrats alienating the middle class and Donald Trump's resurgence as a political force in the 2024 elections.
www.dailysignal.com www.dailysignal.com

 
I feel bad for children of some politicians especially Presidents. Given how crazy some folks are these days, it can't be easy for these children or young adults to go through life being guarded. Barron recently started college (speaking of Barron...dude is about 8 feet tall) and I can't imagine what it is like attending college being surrounded all the time by SS agents.
 
Guard Dad said:
My prediction

Trump wins the Electoral Collage with 312 EVs. He also wins the popular vote by 1 or 2%. It's a real possibility that he could get as high as 335 Electoral votes by winning Virginia and Minnesota, but that would be a best case scenario that I'm not counting on.

It's going to be black voters who send Trump back to the White House this time. I think there's a good chance the race will be called on Tuesday night.

Republicans win the House and Senate by small margins.
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Well, RCP has called Nevada and Arizona for Trump. So he did indeed win312 EVs and won the popular vote.

If the GOP does keep the House, y'all owe me a new set of speakers. :)
 
This was made before the last two states were called, but he breaks down how he did it, and also shows how much worse Harris did than Biden or Hillary. EX" Harris only won New York by 12 points, Biden won it by 23 points.

The Democrats have to be reeling after this.

 
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