Electric vehicles....

The big impact of all this push will be in 5-7 years when all these experimental batteries start failing and replacements are not available.

We've run an ICE in our Equinox for 10 years and 160,000 miles. The engine is still running fine with some maintainance done on it. (Timing chains/Water pump)

I'm wondering what the design life of these batteries are? They are pushing for performance and that usually means design life takes a backseat. They don't care what happens after the warrenty expires. I'd love to see what "extended service plans" are running for these EVs and if they have an exception for the battery.

I think we're going to have a mess when all these delivery trucks and cars and etc all start failing at the same time.
 
The Sound Guy said:
The big impact of all this push will be in 5-7 years when all these experimental batteries start failing and replacements are not available.

We've run an ICE in our Equinox for 10 years and 160,000 miles. The engine is still running fine with some maintainance done on it. (Timing chains/Water pump)

I'm wondering what the design life of these batteries are? They are pushing for performance and that usually means design life takes a backseat. They don't care what happens after the warrenty expires. I'd love to see what "extended service plans" are running for these EVs and if they have an exception for the battery.

I think we're going to have a mess when all these delivery trucks and cars and etc all start failing at the same time.
Click to expand...
Here's an interesting article on EV warranties. I found the information below especially interesting.

Most EV and hybrid battery warranties specify when the manufacturer will replace the battery. Tesla, for instance, will replace batteries that fall below 70% of their capacity while under warranty. Volkswagen promises the same for its ID.4 EV. Nissan will replace a Leaf’s battery if its capacity falls under 75%.
Click to expand...
 
Boss 302 said:
Here's an interesting article on EV warranties. I found the information below especially interesting.
Click to expand...
Interesting! Thanks.



Hmm... so a 400 mile range car is down to 300 mile range or lower before they will replace the battery. And if the warranty is up, it's your problem.



  • Electric car warranties are similar to bumper-to-bumper coverage on gas-powered cars, plus an additional warranty for the battery.
I'd expect this

  • Hybrid and EV battery warranties last at least eight years or 100,000 miles, which is longer than most manufacturer powertrain warranties.
If you don't drive much, then 100K miles in 8 years is pretty balanced, but when we had kids in sports, and I was driving to work every day, we'd put 20K miles a year on our cars. However, an ICE is the equivalent of the MOTOR(s) in an EV, not the battery. The battery is the equivalent of the gas tank. Unless they have a major design fault and as long as the maintenance is done, I'd expect an ICE/Gas tank built today to go at least 150K to 200K miles. Not going to happen with EV. As soon as people understand the battery issue, at the end of the warranty, the car value is going to be scrap. (or less if the battery is hard to recycle.)

  • According to some studies, total battery failure is uncommon, but electric car batteries degrade and lose 5-10% of their life in the first five years.
So, assuming a good battery you will still lose 40-50 miles of range in the first 5 years. Also, I would assume those studies were using cars that are 5 YO now, whose batteries used proven tech and were designed for reliability, not competitive cost. I would expect worse numbers from cars produced today in the cost reduction battle for high volume sales.

  • Electric car battery replacement typically happens when capacity falls below 70-75% while under warranty, depending on the manufacturer.
Hmmm, I wonder how would people react with their current cars if it ran fine, just had to go to the gas station every 300 miles instead of 400?

Then I assume you will need to trust the dealer's test rig when they determine the battery capacity for warranty replacement. They are not going to drive around to empty it, the test rig will have a huge set of resistors to dump the power into. Hopefully outside if the shop is air conditioned. (Though in winter it would heat the shop for a 4 or 5 hours.) When they start testing every car that comes in with a range complaint, its' going to waste a huge amount of power. Then wait until you can get a new one to be installed.

What a mess this is going to be.
 
The Sound Guy said:
Interesting! Thanks.



Hmm... so a 400 mile range car is down to 300 mile range or lower before they will replace the battery. And if the warranty is up, it's your problem.



  • Electric car warranties are similar to bumper-to-bumper coverage on gas-powered cars, plus an additional warranty for the battery.
I'd expect this

  • Hybrid and EV battery warranties last at least eight years or 100,000 miles, which is longer than most manufacturer powertrain warranties.
If you don't drive much, then 100K miles in 8 years is pretty balanced, but when we had kids in sports, and I was driving to work every day, we'd put 20K miles a year on our cars. However, an ICE is the equivalent of the MOTOR(s) in an EV, not the battery. The battery is the equivalent of the gas tank. Unless they have a major design fault and as long as the maintenance is done, I'd expect an ICE/Gas tank built today to go at least 150K to 200K miles. Not going to happen with EV. As soon as people understand the battery issue, at the end of the warranty, the car value is going to be scrap. (or less if the battery is hard to recycle.)

  • According to some studies, total battery failure is uncommon, but electric car batteries degrade and lose 5-10% of their life in the first five years.
So, assuming a good battery you will still lose 40-50 miles of range in the first 5 years. Also, I would assume those studies were using cars that are 5 YO now, whose batteries used proven tech and were designed for reliability, not competitive cost. I would expect worse numbers from cars produced today in the cost reduction battle for high volume sales.

  • Electric car battery replacement typically happens when capacity falls below 70-75% while under warranty, depending on the manufacturer.
Hmmm, I wonder how would people react with their current cars if it ran fine, just had to go to the gas station every 300 miles instead of 400?

Then I assume you will need to trust the dealer's test rig when they determine the battery capacity for warranty replacement. They are not going to drive around to empty it, the test rig will have a huge set of resistors to dump the power into. Hopefully outside if the shop is air conditioned. (Though in winter it would heat the shop for a 4 or 5 hours.) When they start testing every car that comes in with a range complaint, its' going to waste a huge amount of power. Then wait until you can get a new one to be installed.

What a mess this is going to be.
Click to expand...
It will be a mess in so many ways. I just don't see EVs being a viable option right now or in our lifetime.
 
You would think the environmentalists would oppose lithium mining because of what it does to the environment. Below is a picture of a lithium mine in Chile. You would think the same environmentalists who oppose oil pipelines because they disrupt the lives of wildlife would be opposed to this big hole in the ground.
11-19-ftlithium__03.jpg
 
Boss 302 said:
You would think the environmentalists would oppose lithium mining because of what it does to the environment. Below is a picture of a lithium mine in Chile. You would think the same environmentalists who oppose oil pipelines because they disrupt the lives of wildlife would be opposed to this big hole in the ground.
11-19-ftlithium__03.jpg
Click to expand...
But eventually you can fill it with water and stock it with bass,,, each one you eat will make you totally euphoric !!!
 
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